Robert,
Thank you for your reply. I agree with part of it, and disagree with another part of it.
You are right that I did not buy Valence on account of Mark Visnic. I slowly built my position over several years as I watched it progress through its research and development program. During that time I learned as much as I could about it. I watched its balance sheet and its cash burn rate, and I thought that its R&D would succeed before its cash ran out. Now that its cash has run out ahead of its R&D, I am uneasily maintaining my position despite Mark Visnic's warnings and the somewhat dubious nature of its new financing. I am maintaining my position (at least for now) in part because of the arguments of other posters I find interesting. As you said, it's a highly speculative venture!
However, I disagree with your characterization of the investment process as an all-or-nothing matter of placing your bet and then waiting to see whether you win big or lose everything. From this standpoint, the whole purpose of an equity market trading the shares of a corporation is to avoid the necessity of such an approach. A market allows you to change your bet -- to increase it or decrease it or liquidate it altogether. Given the availability of such a market, it then is, I believe, incumbent on the investor to continually reevaluate his investment as circumstances evolve. His job is to keep up with those changing circumstances and factor them into his "game plan." Keeping up with those evolving circumstances is one of the great virtues of this Valence chat line. People like Visnic promote this process even when their posts are disquieting or abrasive.
In this light, I must now consider whether to lighten up on my position. The circumstances facing Valence have changed, so perhaps it would be prudent to take something off the table, even if at a small loss. I follow, and will follow, this chat line to help my decision-making process. It is not an all-or-nothing bet for me.
Good luck to you too, and to all us Valence longs. |
