Skeeter, you are right in that it is a simple, observable fact that BB's ability to forecast bear markets going forward has not been tested. Many of us listen to his logic, and consider it sound, and we hope that he will continue to be right, but until that next bear comes we just won't know for sure. I'm sure Bob knows this too, because he is frequently emphasizing the importance of asset allocation, diversification, and other risk management tools.
One of the things I like about Bob, and one of the reasons I think he may have a chance of continuing to be right in the future, is that he seems to limit himself to what can be done, and does not attempt the impossible. For example, although his newsletter is called Marketimer, he does not actually try to time the market in the short term, but merely advises his subscribers as to what valuation levels should be considered a good buy, and then advises people to dollar-cost-average until that valuation level comes around. He seems to have a well balanced mixture of sound theory and practical experience, as well as a desire and a skill for teaching. But I am sure that he does not want to see anyone who is only a couple of years from retirement risk everything they have on his bull market forecasts, and that is why he advises people to make their portfolios more risk-averse as they grow older. |
