Joseph, it's a fascinating question -- I've been wrestling with it myself. If everyone thinks LU is going to buy ASND, will that doom the deal in itself? The obvious answer is of course not. If the deal makes strategic sense for LU and ASND and the price is right, it will be done. Period. I'm convinced that LU needs ASND to compete with CSCO, NT/BAY and the European telecom suppliers. This fact doesn't change even given the rampant speculation by Wall St. analysts, networking/telecom industry publications, fund managers, newsletter writers, and the ever-vigilant SI ASND thread that this deal will in fact occur soon after 10/1/98.
The fact is that there is just a lot more info in the market now before deals get done. The web has allowed all of us to learn more and more what was once the province of investment bankers and their clients. Sure, it's not perfect and the little guys will be the last ones to know. But, I don't buy the conspiracy theories that LU won't buy ASND just because everyone believes they will. In many other industries (e.g., banking and finance), there are rumored acquisitions for years that end up being done (e.g., Wells Fargo takeout by Nations Bank).
I welcome critique of the above comments. djane |
