Fred, I suggest you read the current issue of Business Week, "It's not easy to be cheap"
Intel's 1997 share of PC's:
$1500+ = 99%
$1000 - $1500 = 72%
<$1000 = 45%
"Worse, it now seem's the double whammy of soft PC sales and falling prices could be around for years. Sales of more profitable $1000+ PC's are expected to grow just 10% annually for the next five years, while bargain basement PC's will surge an annual 55% says International data Corporation." Note, they said $1000+ PC's would grow just 10% annually!
They characterized Celeron as a "Band aid". (Last year I called it a "Knee jerk reaction", which many people on this thread derided).
"The new version, (sic. Celeron-A), is winning high marks. (Good news for the low- end).
They also talk approvingly of the "StrongArm" effort. But this is low margin commodity stuff. And they have a long way to go to catch up to MIP's, (who has about 50%, share), and Hitachi with 25% share. This will be a down and dirty market.
You seem to pin all your hopes on the high-end, particularly servers, but Intel has a long way to go in this market also.
Intel's main success has been the 80% of their business that is PC related. That's changing.
As for Intel's future, I have no doubt they will be a $50 Billion company in five years.
But I also think they will achieve this with much lower margins.
Like I said 14 months ago, Intel has entered a new era. |
