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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 217.15-2.5%Nov 20 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jan Crawley who wrote (13215)8/11/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
The options symbol for JAN 140s should be ZQNAH.

It may be a good time to start selling the 140s, 145s or 150s.

Amazongonenuts.com is moving up because of the Wall Street Hype Machine. This has looked very strong in the face of a general market sell-off. Brokers are likely to advise some of their clients "yea, the market sucks but look at what Geocities did today - it's up to 33 from 17! Yea, the internet sector is where the future is! Amazon.com is one of Geocities advertising partners and their stock has gone ballistic this year. Our analyst has a target price of 175. Let's get you out of your Hewlett Packard and Microsoft and into some GCTY and AMZN. (my brokerage is going to clean up on the over-allotment and our position in AMZN and I'm going to pocket a couple big ones in commissions today. Ain't life great!)"

GCTY has traded over 5 million shares and was up to around 32 last time I checked. That's off from the high of around 36 but up a lot from the IPO price of 17. If it's like typical IPOs in this sector I expect the hype machine to move GCTY up some more for a week or three. From there it will probably head lower. Amazon may ride up further on the tie-in to GeoCities, in which case I expect a nice sell-off once the hype machine winds down on GCTY (bilked investors for all that they can). I don't think AMZN has much further to go, the short-term TA is already starting to weaken. Still we may see 130 within a few days. Then will be an excellent time to sell OCT or JAN calls.

My thinking is shifting more in favor of the OCT calls because large blocks of shares from acquisitions and insiders will become available for trading and the summer weakness in sales will show up. Of course the options prices are higher but the wiggle room is less.
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