<<What Asia crisis? Asia's been in the toilet for years. Did somebody
wake up, or excuse to sell. > Micheal W...
Sorry Eddie, to use your excuse, sometimes I dont have time to send many individual messages <g>
Actually, this is not true....The vast majority of Asian economies had outstanding growth rates in the early 90's, great (but a little bit slowing growth) in the couple years before last year. It was in the late spring of last year that things starting hitting the fan.....
You are probably referring mostly to Japan, and, yes, although Japan is in the dumper now, it has had some fairly good growth a couple of years ago (for a period of 2-3 years or so)....It is relative to its FORMER growth rate (60's, 70's, 80's) that Japan's performance in the 1990's has been so poor....
I kind of view this whole thing differently. I see it as good that the markets are now (over) reacting negatively to any (potential) bad news out of Asia...I think that earlier this year the markets (and the stocks of some companies) were in denial about the situation.....The denial phase is pretty much over............The Asian crisis has a ways to go, but at least now the upside (in the markets) is greater...........IMO, we should see a "reallocation" of investment capital from those companies really affected by the crisis to those that are not....Dell, for the most part, is not affected by this crisis.....I also think it is great that Dell's earnings are coming out a week, so, once again, the average Joe can see that the "Asian contagion" is not making any sort of dent into Dell's growth (neither are sub-1000 computers, inventory gluts, etc)...
Relative to Dell, this whole thing is way overblown.....Sure, the Asian crisis has hurt sales a little, but it has helped on the component cost side, so the whole thing has probably been a wash.....It is the Gucci's, the commodity exporters, the McDonald's that should worry (and their stockholders, too)....
China, even if it "falls" to 5% annual growth, will still buy computers like mad over the next few years....Japan....growth (in computer sales) will resume before too long....last I saw, industry sales were down 10% y-over-y....This is a country awash in savings, where the government is wanting people to spend....computer sales will not remain down 10% y-over-y too much longer.....So, two of Dell's biggest Asian markets are still in good (enough) shape....Last I heard Taiwan and India are not grossly affected by the Asian crisis....(at least as far as computer sales are concerned)....
As far as Dell is concerned, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Russia, Phillipines and Malaysia (for purchases) are irrelevant...S. Korea barely so......
The Americas and European (growth) remain 15x or 16x more important to Dell than what is happening in Asia (on the sales side)
Like last October, any effects to Dell's stock price from this presents a buying opportunity....
BTW- China will not devalue..........The Yen will catch its feet within a couple of weeks, maybe a month or two..........once this is clear (again) the markets will bounce back up......This, too, is irrelevant to Dell's stock price.........Dell can explode up in flat or even declining markets..(witness late April/early May) |
