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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (30920)	8/11/1998 2:14:00 PM
From: cardcounter	Read Replies (2) of 132070

I'd like to bet on russia, but am unsure on how one would best play the following scenario: 1. Russia devalues their currency, but does not default on their external debt obligations. I'm assuming that the russian debt/equity markets are going to price the devaluation expectations and default expectations into their securities, but that only one expectation will be realized. Ideally, I would buy in after the devaluation panick selling ebbs. 2. The IMF approves the $4.3 bln its considering for september. Without making a judgement on the validity of these expectations, how would one position themselves to realize the maximum upside potential should the above scenario work out? (extra points for feasibility) Bonus question: or should I stop sniffing glue and leave the macro-investing to Stan Druckenmiller over at Quantum?

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