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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19252)	8/11/1998 4:47:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (4) of 50167

Test of 1060----On a day like this when futures opened limit down and we had circuit breakers when I wrote my test was to stick my neck out a no-nonsense commentary where is the support and where it will be held- it is this key thing ''your support and your reversal point'' in the begining of the day for that I am happy that this thread is at cutting edge. We are providing the points and also when it will reverse- this is '''day in day out''' and we expect it to do as far as fundamentals remain intact. Flight to quality makes yields low enough to create value-- so the full circle is we start with ASEA we see huge selling on globex- we run to bonds- the bonds run higher and yields drop and than valuations become attractive at lower yields. That is the standard valuation model which every big guy on the street use from Byron Wein to Abby. One more point when I wrote to Raj about Rubin reluctance to intervene as a trader, I made a prediction that we will not see intervention at old levels -now considering that market was expecting intervention I made my judgemnet knowing that Rubin is a trader- He will meet the traders half way- I think we will see intervention with 36 hours if China maintains its discipline and we will see it around 242.8 to cable /yen. The markets have discounted a turmoil half way may be a little more in China to 1140 but this is a global integrated mart and you watch out for 'global signs' for direction of this market, if global conditions worsen we may see this 8228 breaking which is the lower support of this huge channel of prosperity starting from July 96. It was in July 96 when we had this begining of bull run Yen in those days were 108- the smart guys who make comparisons forget that if this market drops further 800 points the bond yields would be 5% the market will be at that level undervalued by 10%, moreover $ will weaken to 135-140 to a yen and that would translate into higher US exports, these factors alone will sow the seed of a huge up move. So enjoy the voltality this is the best time to make money- the bears are throwing the money al over -- suck them dry. I hope we will see a lot more predictions of precise and higher quality on this thread. To: +George Mc Geary (19244 ) From: +IQBAL LATIF Tuesday, Aug 11 1998 9:58AM ET Reply # of 19253 Look at action of major stocks and DJIA- the pits are at the other side of trade on opening- they are bidding at 1071 on opening so normally they would like to take it higher to 1080 -1082 area and will like to test 1060 the intraday lows of last week. Probably I still think that SPU test of 1060 will hold again today. Look also at Europe after being down heavily they are holding well rather well up from lows-- SOX and PSE is not showing any catastrophic opening, in circumstances like this I maintain that this is extreme fear the world is not falling apart. Russia is down cumulatively 19% so is China making a break below 200 Days MA but I see that this is not going to break DJIA until my core stocks start breaking- the speculators are fully invested they are trading instruments I am waiting for that break of core stocks until than pits will reign supreme. Watch out at 1080, if pits are able to take it up there.

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