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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Phil(bullrider) who wrote (12602)8/11/1998 6:09:00 PM
From: virgil vancleave  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
market is testing the bottom of most uptrend lines and if broke, we could be in for a down movement like most have never seen before. my opinion is this would be good for the market long term. all the indicators say that being short here is the safest area to be in. advance/decline ratio looks sick and getting worse. there are a few areas of strength. one is biotechs which have good earnings. the other airlines, but i feel this is because of low oil prices. but how low can oil go? me thinks the bottom is very near...... my guess 11 or 12 and then a quick recovery to 13 or so. anything above that and airlines will join the rest of the decliners.

a few good short picks here...... i am still short sctr. closed my position and then reentered it when i noticed the market collapsing. i think it will hit low 20's soon as it appears that the insiders are large sellers (some selling all of their holdings) and earnings seem to be delayed. i have been short since low 40's.

if asia markets go lower tonight and i expect they will, it would mean bad news for us markets. growth is slowing and maybe even "deflating". judging by stock prices, this statement may be more true than we know.

other shorts i think look attractive here: vod, lhsg, lhspf, pixr, tklc, and a few others. as you can tell, i only short high flyers when they appear to have lost support and start to break trendlines.

my only longs now are biotechs: anik and mre. most everything else seems to be showing lots of red.

just my honest opinion. good luck.
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