Crude Oil prices do NOT matter right now ! - bank on it !
....now that ought to get the 'ole Dog off the porch...
The capitulation in the overall market is THE story - NOT crude oil prices ! You will not make any money here by watching crude oil prices - because... ''it aint going anywhere fast'' !
John Bollinger just appeared on CNBC - this guy has had the best calls consistantly of ANYONE I've seen. He just affirmed what is all ready common sense.....''buy stocks now that have all ready taken their hits... stocks that are down 50% from their highs etc.'' ...
All week I was hoping for and expecting a re-test of a ''double bottom'' - not because I personally give a fiddlyfoo about TA, but because the big money boys DO ! 4-5 major analysts who have been consistantly DOWN on oil; stated that oil was at the top, not near the top, but at THE top of fundamentally undervalued/oversold sectors. They however said that there was only 1 thing keeping them from coming here; that was they were not sure this was the bottom, or near the bottom due to the prior freefall which had accelerated recently this last month to levels no one logically expected. That ''1 thing'' that was holding them back was a re-test of the prior bottom; they saw a "V" bottom but wanted a "W" or double bottom.... We got it today... obviously the cosmo's will not prohibit a run down below here, but my point is this was the barrier to sector rotation which is what we need to firm up, base and to rebound strongly from here on coming good news - when we get it ...
Be skeptical on the supply and OPEC cut numbers.... They have been & will be ''spun'' to fit the market sentiment... did everyone see how the world had pronounced that crude was just at an once in a lifetime low due to the simultaneous El Nino effects combined with weak Asian demand and OPEC's increased production ... Crude magically ceased to be a problem on friday - euphoria permeated everywhere ! It was just a temporary ''blip'' - no problem - we all knew this and we all know crude will be back to normal soon. The world was good, oil was good, we were going up - analysts were on CNBC every 5 minutes talking up the oil stocks, every news story had a lead in with a piece on the oil stocks leading the rebound... but then STOP, false alarm ! Why were we excited about Oil - only because we thought Acampora was right - we were going to see a correction in the overall market - and of course we all know that that is the time to move to the undervalued sectors and small caps... and we did. But, then everyone decided to buy on this damn dip again ! Well maybe, just maybe Acampora was wrong ! Hey lets jump back in for the big ride up.... But then once again the big Bear hit, not Acampora but the ''Russian'' Bear... Asia sold off over night, Russia basically collapsed and well maybe Ralph Acampora was right after all, so lets all follow the pack like the good little lemmings we are and sell again - take those big cap profits off the table and rotate back into those undervalued oil stocks again .
History ''101''. Friday's Black-Gold euphoria was replaced once again by the ''beaten down oil sector''...and once again - people will do what they know they should do when they get a 2nd chance to look the big ugly Bear in the face - they will rotate...as well they should, right into FGII, EVI, RIG & RON et al.
Institutional managers got what they wanted; a double bottom in oils and a reafirmation that there really was significant downside in the overall market - the YEN, China potentially devaluing, Hong Kong & Japanese markets down big overnight and Russia folding were the affirmation they needed --- remember they had strike 1 & 2 ; God have mercy on their souls if they don't ''rotate'' now - 'cause in life just like in baseball, you might get 2 strikes, but on strike 3 - you're outta there ! These Institutional buyers have 2 strikes in this market - what do you think they're gonna do ?
...PS; anyone gonna give James Cramer a little help with his Oil list ? ...talk about a ''rotation''...
...and yes folks. that is blood in them there streets today. |
