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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (27542)8/12/1998 12:56:00 AM
From: JHR  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Slider as a long time investor and follower of this sector, I'm sure we all hope you're right, but I dont think you'll see the institutions jumping back in too quickly. Without them I think you're more likely to see George Cole's scenario play out that we will see a fairly long basing period, because it IS oil prices that drive these suckers.

The other point with the mutual funds at least is their egos will not allow them to jump back in very soon after they have unloaded. I hold some of the Janus funds and they got completely out by last April. They went so far in their semi annual statement to say that this sector was their biggest mistake for the 6 months ending April, i.e. staying too long in it. I'd be willing to venture that they will not get back in until the relative strengh of the sector is over 80, not in the single digit range it is today.

Keep up the posts and dialogue. You're interesting reading. Personally I think this sector is dead money for the next 6 months at least. I'd be happy to be proven wrong. Remember a parabola is symetric around its axis. You can get the same price on the way up as on the way down and we sure look like we are still on the way down.
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