The big picture, from the Houston Chronicle
Few PC Users Flex Their Machines' New Muscles
By DWIGHT SILVERMAN
c.1998 Houston Chronicle
HOUSTON -- George Bush stormed the desert of Kuwait with
hundreds of thousands of soldiers, high-tech missiles and the latest stealth
aircraft. But today, the former president's office in Houston makes do with
lowly Pentium 133 personal computers.
And they're refurbished ones, at that.
But, according to the consultants who set up and maintain the computer
network at Bush's office, they work quite nicely.
''Actually, that's a significant upgrade for them, considering what they
had just earlier this year,'' said Terry Tisdale, a senior technical staff member
at Insource Technologies. ''They were running on 486-33s.''
Bush's office workers use basic business applications - word processing,
spreadsheets, e-mail, World Wide Web browsers - and the older computers
handle these jobs just fine.
They, and many other businesses and individuals, are taking advantage
of a cycle in PC technology in which low-cost hardware is more than adequate
for most computing tasks. Low-cost systems are no longer technological
weaklings.
People can buy powerful computers today for well under $1,000 that, a
year ago, cost in the $2,500 to $3,000 price range.
''This makes the people at Intel cringe,'' said Nathan Brookwood, an
analyst at Dataquest, a market research firm that studies technology trends.
''Even though hardware has gotten more and more powerful, people are
basically doing the same things with it and using the same kind of software
tools as they did three years ago.''
The current state of hardware/software balance is the opposite of where
it was three years ago, when new operating systems from Microsoft bogged
down the most commonly used processor technology of the day.
''Remember that machine you purchased in 1992, with an 80486 chip
running at 33 megahertz or 66 megahertz?'' asked Brookwood. ''And
remember how nicely Windows 3.1 ran on it? Then you put Windows 95 on it
and you said, 'Oh my God, what happened to slow this machine down?'''
Craig Beilinson, a product manager at Microsoft who works on the
Windows NT operating system, said that while the microprocessor is one of
the most crucial factors in PC performance, there are others. They include the
amount of system memory; the speed of the hard drive; the graphics card; and,
for machines connected to a network or the Internet, the speed of that
connection.
Some applications tax computers more than others, as does the way
people use them. Simple programs, such as word processors and e-mail, don't
make many demands on a PC. Graphics programs and cutting-edge, 3-D
games put more stress on a computer's hardware.
Users who run many different programs at once - such as a word
processor, a spreadsheet, e-mail, a Web browser, a presentation graphics
program and personal information manager - also put heavy demands on a PC.
That kind of load is unusual, though. Microsoft estimates that the
average user has only three programs running simultaneously on Windows
95/98 PCs.
Analysts say computers selling at the low end of the market today can
handle these situations with ease. As a result, most buyers don't need to drop
big bucks on higher-powered - and higher-priced - systems.
''There aren't many people who really need a Pentium II,'' Brookwood
said.
Most sub-$1,000 systems sold today use either an Intel Pentium MMX
chip, or one from a competing chip maker that is compatible with the Pentium
design. The processors run at speeds of 200 to 233 megahertz, and the
systems have 32 megabytes of memory - more than enough to run several
moderate-sized programs comfortably. That configuration is similar to Apple
Computer's new iMac system, aimed at consumers.
Such systems sold for much more about this time last year. Houston's
Compaq Computer Corp., for example, was selling 233-megahertz Presario
systems for between $1,700 and $2,700 last summer.
Today, Compaq offers a 266-megahertz Presario that uses an Advanced
Micro Devices K6 chip - a clone of the Pentium MMX processor - for $899.
And $2,600 today will get you a 400-megahertz Pentium II system with
128 megabytes of memory, a 10-gigabyte hard drive and impressive 3-D
graphics. Analysts say that a year from now these systems will cost less than
$1,000.
Processors have increased dramatically in power since the days of the
early 80486, Intel's primary chip available at the time Windows 95 was
introduced. A 66-megahertz 80486 chip would handle 54 million instructions
per second. By comparison, a 133-megahertz Pentium chip - the kind used in
former President Bush's office - can do nearly 219 million instructions per
second. And a Pentium Pro chip running at 200 megahertz - used primarily in
file server computers as part of corporate networks - can handle up to 300
million instructions per second.
But, as Brookwood pointed out, most software hasn't changed much in
the last three years. Windows 98 and Windows 95 are architecturally similar
under the hood.
''Office 97 is not that much more of a power hog than Office 95 was,''
Brookwood said. ''Except maybe for games, there have been no real new
mainstream applications that stress the hardware.''
Anita Haines, a retired geophysicist, recently set out to buy a new
computer. She'd budgeted between $1,800 and $2,000, but wound up paying
about half that for a 233-megahertz Packard Bell computer.
''I could have bought a more expensive one, but I wanted to get a Zip
drive, better speakers, accessories and things like that,'' Haines said.
She uses her computer for word processing, Internet access, personal
finance and low-level graphics. She produces a club newsletter on her system.
''So far, there's nothing I've found that it won't do,'' she said. ''I'm very
impressed with the speed, considering that I'm moving up from a 486-66.''
Businesses also are finding that they can get along with less than the
state of the art.
Michael S. Chung, director of Transworld Academy, a Houston medical
vocational school, recently walked into Office Depot and came out with five
$799 Presario computers for use in his offices.
''Sure, I could have afforded more, but it was a good value,'' Chung said.
The five computers are joined on a network at the school, handling
word-processing chores and sharing a database.
''These are more than adequate for what we have to do,'' he said. ''And
they have open slots and room to expand. They're good machines for the
money.''
Hardware companies insist that cases similar to Chung's are an
aberration. Most businesses continue to buy at the higher end of the PC
spectrum, said Ken Kurtzman, vice president for Compaq's small and medium
business division.
''They are demanding all the power we can give them,'' he said. ''Many
small to medium businesses are using these computers to run their entire
business. They're doing their own marketing, and using the computers to do
complex graphics. They run their accounting department on them, and a small
business running its receivables on a spreadsheet can rapidly turn it into a very
big spreadsheet that needs a lot of power to recalculate.''
Other businesses are buying at the high end of the PC power scale
because they want to standardize on one design. If 20 people in a building need
a 400-megahertz Pentium II, it may be cheaper to put that kind of computer on
everyone's desk, rather than mix and match different systems.
Intel and other chip makers work with the makers of PCs to market new
and more powerful uses for personal computers, not always with the most
successful of results.
For years, Intel has been pushing the use of PCs in desktop video
conferencing, a technology that requires both a powerful computer and a fast
connection to the Internet or a local network. But users have found little to get
excited about.
In a news release titled ''Videoconference: A Technology Solution
Without an Obvious Problem,'' market research firm International Data Corp.
reported that most businesses did not consider the technology a high priority.
''Survey findings clearly reveal that potential users are not seeing
videoconferencing as a necessity, and vendors are having trouble making a
compelling argument for the adoption of this technology,'' the IDC report said.
Karen Alter, director of microprocessor marketing and business planning
at Intel, said she thinks videoconferencing will take off - someday.
''If you think an application is going to be there, then someone has to get
out in front with that application,'' Alter said. ''If it's not going to be us, then it's
not going to be anyone else. We might have been a little early with it, but I
think you will see this adopted.''
Intel also makes investments in the development of
non-processor-related technologies. For example, it's been heavily involved in
promoting new standards for faster Internet connections into businesses and
homes. That will make it easier for Intel to, in turn, promote connection- and
processor-intensive applications, such as - you guessed it - videoconferencing
One of the applications that does require a powerful computer is gaming.
While today's 3-D games will run well enough on systems with year-old
technology, they really scream on modern, cutting-edge PCs.
Both Intel and its chief chip rival, Advanced Micro Devices, or AMD,
have been courting computer gamers.
For example, AMD has cozied up to the 3-D game community by
sponsoring the Professional Gamers League, an attempt to turn computer
gaming into a professional sport.
''Gamers always seem to be the early adopters - the state of the art is
more important to them,'' said Ben Anixter, vice president of external affairs at
AMD.
Because they require more sophisticated hardware to run at their best,
games are probably one of the most hardware-sensitive genres for software
development. Game developers walk a fine line between being able to create a
cool-looking game and ensuring there are enough systems that can play it.
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(The Houston Chronicle web site is at chron.com )
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