Matt:
On August 5th, we had some indication for a reversal with a blowoff. However, as I posted, I thought it was nonclassic as we did not have quite enough panic associated with it.
Nevertheless, if we look at the candlestick chart pattern, we saw on the 4th, 5th and 6th a "morning star" pattern which is symbolic of a reversal pattern, especially when the stochastics are reading less than negative 20 [as they were]. [Refer to the book "The Visual Investor" by John Murphy, published by Wiley in 1996].
My feeling today is better as we saw much more panic and retested. However, since I always like to hedge just in case I'm wrong, I have a sufficient number of puts on a couple of stocks [not the index as they are tooo expensive] that I purchased today.
I still feel the market is extremely oversold; Now the Dow MACD indicator is in the vicinity of the 1987 crash level. I sense more bearish sentiment [which is bullish]; and the ratio of falling stocks to rising stocks transiently reached 10:1 this am; a very rare occurence, and often the harbinger of a rally. Fundamentals look good to me; rising bond prices, low inflation, a rising dollar, low interest rates [with another rate cut possible at the next meeting], high corporate profits....I believe investors are over-reacting to Asia and the yen.
I am still long on both SEEK and LYCOS and expect both to show a superb rally very soon; [The MACD on LYCOS with 7-29-7 ratios and the MACD on SEEK with 7-13-9 ratios have clear buy signals] hopefully in the next 10 days.
Good luck and let the campfire warm you,
Jeff
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