I strongly disagree with your observation that "Dell isn't going to do that well this quarter." based on the observation that "Usually, when the market is tanking, they usually come out and support their stock. This time they didn't do it. In fact, when given the opportunity to comment about earnings, they declined."
Look at the IDC numbers. (e.g., 80%-plus growth in Europe) and the recent report about extremely strong notebook sales in july. As for the lack of public comment, I think management just didn't want to further heighten expectations that are already very high. Look what happened to Dell's stock last quarter. Their public comments were very positive and led to extremely high expectations. When the company didn't beat the whisper number, the stock was punished (about 95 to 77 as i recall). Even without upbeat talk from management this quarter, the whisper number is getting awfully high.
I think this whisper number crap just contributes to volatility, mostly on the downside. So far, the high whisper numbers for dell this qtr aren't driving up the price. They're only driving up expectations for a blowout number. Ironically, a very solid number, such as ..49 or .50 could once again end up being perceived as a disappointment. I'll never forget CNBC's report the night Dell reported its earnings last quarter. it was captioned "Dell Delights" and was very upbeat. Of course, in the weeks that followed the only people who were delighted were the shorts. |
