Micron Only Forum Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 237.16

+4.6%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Retired Early who wrote (5979)	12/13/1996 10:45:00 AM
From: Don Additon	of 53903

Using Larry Dudash's normalized DRAM prices, one can ballpark that "average" normalized DRAM prices fell from ~$6.51/MB during Micron's previous quarter to ~$5.12/MB this latest (Sep-Nov) quarter. Admittedly this result implicitly includes many simplifications (spot=contract, equal sales each month, etc.), BUT it does indicate that DRAM prices have fallen on the order of 21% quarter to quarter! MU lost money on DRAM last (reported) quarter so I cannot believe costs have been reduced enough to achieve positive earnings this quarter even with a very sharp pencil. If Micron does pull off this miracle, I don't think there is much upside for this stock - every positive assumption is already being used to keep this stock up in the mid-30's. However, with negative earnings (latest Zack's consensus is $.02) there COULD be a mass exodus and the start of the (second) big fall! From prior experience (i.e., getting burned) with this stock at announcement time, I'm holding puts mostly in April and even July. No need to razz me if the MU collapse doesn't occur before January's expiration, it will. I've got time (and reality) on my side!

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next