Well, thought I was out yesterday but screwed up my order. Now I'm out. Kept 10 Jan calls in case of a rapid rise. Did just about as well.
Phils hype machine was in rare form yesterday. First he predicted 300,000 units with 150,000 being sold overseas. Now we know no overseas iMacs this qtr. Apple sources are reporting they are making 10's of thousands for the launch and 10's of thousands a week thereafter. We also know they expect supply to be constrained. Take a median 10's of thousands type number - 50,000. 50,000 x 12 weeks for a typical qtr is 600,000 which has been Apple's total output. So lets reduce the 10's of thousands number to 30,000. Say 90,000 at the launch plus 30,000 for next 6 weeks is 270,000. I believe 220,000 to 270,000 in the qtr. Also Apple has stated they won't sell through Apple store till Oct 1. Why - because they will not even have enough to satisfy resellers.
Powerbooks. Supply of 292 Mhz machines is "trickling" in according to news article today. Units selling in single digits in many retailers so supply is still very constrained after 3 months or so. According to the article mid-level machines also quite constrained.
G3s. Where's the refresh. At this point I'd be guessing that G3 sales has slowed to a trickle. Does anyone have in any info. Last article I saw was a refresh announced today. Not even a press release announcement yet.
Hopefully, AIOs are selling well to school market.
Bottom line. Apple may have trouble improving unit sales and revenue on a qtr to qtr basis. This would just be a temporary glich and I would still expect Dec qtr to be great. Still have the last product line to be launched - the consumer portable so longer term Apple should be very good -- except Apple like every other stock is susceptible to a down market. IMHO we haven't even begun to see the downside yet. Rich |
