more misc cc notes:
(thanks, Brian, for doing most of the work)
sharp decline in orders in June
factors which continue to affect the industry:
DRAM overcapacity, as players cannabalise (sp.?) the industry by pursuing market share at any cost
decline in CPU prices
growth of sub-1000 segment
internet
Korean companies have no financing
4Q guidance: rev. 625-675M, orders 600M, overall net loss including restructuring charges; sizing company to breakeven at sales of 600M/Q
138M in backlog cancellations, none of which were losses to competitors; if an order was pushed out less than 12 months, it was kept on backlog; over 12 months, it was taken off backlog
virtually no capacity orders; selective technology orders, because new chips are all being designed for .25 or below processes
gaining market share in all segments, and in Japan
we'd like to think we're at the bottom, but..... no visibility for 1999.....we cannot assume we've hit bottom, and cannot predict the length of the downturn
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My comments:
Compare the last statement to the "we are now trolling the bottom" of last CC. Big difference.
Given the general difficulty of selling manufactured goods in Japan, and the yen devaluation, and the fact that AMAT's biggest competitors are Japanese and are desperate for orders, gaining market share in Japan is a very impressive achievement. |
