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Rich, as before, I agree with many of your points but not your conclusion that Apple will have a tough, flat, quarter. Agree that 30,000 iMacs a week is a good guess. Agree that PowerBook situation is a mess. But the strong education season, the G3 refresh, and the strong iMac domestic sales can easily lead to Fred Anderson's projection of 5-10% rev. growth from last quarter.
Remember that Apple traditionally has huge months when they refresh the top of the line machines. I don't consider the 300mhz addition a few months ago as much of a refresh. 333 and 366 is much better.
As Eric said, iMac is not US-only this quarter. Europe starts in two weeks and if you looked at that article I posted to Phil last night, it mentions that Apple Japan expects its first shipment late in August.
Apple's "production" problems this quarter could lead to phenomenal sales next quarter, if there is a backlog of iMacs and PBs and even high-end G3s. It now looks like PB revenue in Q1 might be higher than any of us predicted with backlog and new 333 version.
Keep monitoring the situation for us and give us your take,
Marc |
