Thanks for the correction on new lines delivery schedule.
I wasn't sure I got that part right, so erred conservatively in reporting it.
I found the conference call just about what I expected in all respects, except one. The NI status, line production rates, breakeven rate, Castle Creek extensive due diligence, all came out as expected. The one thing that bothers me a bit, is the comment about potential customers not designing products for the Valence batteries yet. Lev said that they are laying out new products for the Valence batteries, but not in the design stage yet. My original timeline assumed that customers would be designing the batteries into new products by now; this was my questimate because the company has been silent on this issue until now. This pushes out large volume sales of laptop cells a bit, unless of course, a customer will purchase cells while completing their product redesigns. But Lev also said that there appears to be duplicate capability designed into cellphones, so we may see volume cellphone battery sales earlier than volume laptop sales.
We may see volume production 'proven' at NI in September, but then a delay in shipments while customers finish redesigning products. Still the current stock price has all of this factored into the price IMO. If the company proves volume production capability in the next 30 days, and customers initiate product designs, and negotiate contracts, the word will leak, and we'll see the stock price telegraphing the purchase orders. This is my opinion.
Paul |
