First off, this message is to no one in particular. Furthermore, I'll qualify everything that follows by stating that I'm not an investment professional. I'm sure you won't have a hard time believing that ;)
I've been trying to figure out what's going on with VLNC's price movement. Specifically, the recent movement from the mid/hi 4's to the low 5's where it hits a brick wall. Simple trading range? Fine with me. I even think that's most likely. Who is trading? I always thought that day traders looked for stocks with more volume. I know I would. Position traders looking for 1/2 pt? I guess, but I don't have the experience to know for sure.
Is someone unloading a huge number of shares above $5? I don't have time and sales to see the blocks going through so I don't really know. But this leads me to think, "How is Valence positioned in the LiPoly market?" From the quick research I've done, the players (not necessarily viable) in this arena are VLNC, LITH, ULBI, Samsung, and 3M.
- LITH might have a good design but I think that they are way behind VLNC in terms of large scale production potential.
- ULBI I have no current info on
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. announced a new PCS phone in 4/98 that used a lipoly battery. They didn't say who makes the battery (them or someone else). This company is a US company but part of the Samsung Group of S. Korea. Since a US company is subject to US patent law (I assume), what are the patent ramifications if any?
- 3M was originally investigating lipoly for use in electric vehicles. In 2/96 they were awarded a 27 mill contract for a phase two effort to develop their battery. Can't find anything current on their site.
Can any of these companies touch VLNC? The big wildcard is Samsung or their supplier, IMO? Could the market support two large suppliers? I'm sure.
Competitive technology? Probably many years away.
So WHY isn't VLNC trading to higher levels in light of very positive indications of large scale production?
Whew! Sorry about all of the blathering. I guess the last question is the one that got me thinking of all those possibilities.
Chris |
