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Technology Stocks : Command Systems, Inc. (CMND)
CMND 0.353+13.8%3:59 PM EST
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To: Big Dog who wrote (1295)8/12/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: Big Dog  Read Replies (1) of 1956
 
TO ALL***OFF TOPIC*** Do any of you scratch your head about how an IT company with great clients, good fundamentals, good pre- and post- Y2000 business plan is unappreciated, and yet, a company like GeoCities (GCTY)--an internet stock--zooms from $17/share to $45.50/share in two days (and in the face of a nasty market)?????

Here's an interesting GCTY post by Don Dodge (post # 101):

"Lousy fundamentals ? What fundamentals ? There is no fundamental
valuation approach to GCTY. This is a momentum play pure and simple.

You can't short IPO stocks for 30 days. The float will remain around 5M
shares for 6 months. Then the lock ups come off and insiders can sell.
That is when the real action begins. Look on your calendar and count
forward 6 months from yesterday. I would want to be out of the stock by
then, perhaps sooner.

The problem with GeoCities is its business model. Can someone explain
what it is ? When will it be profitable ?

Another problem is that in the end "Content Does Matter". GeoCities has
no compelling content to attract advertisers. I said earlier it is
analogous to advertising on CB Radio instead of real radio stations.
Another way to look at is advertisers are willing to pay hundreds of
thousands of dollars for a 30 second spot on Seinfeld, and they are
willing to pay nothing for a spot on the public access cable station
broadcasting the local Rotary Club luncheon. Content matters and
GeoCities has none.

Enjoy the ride for the next 5 months but get out then.

Don"
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