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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 333.34-1.4%Jan 14 3:59 PM EST
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To: Trey McAtee who wrote (37318)8/12/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo  Read Replies (2) of 53903
 
Trey, Dan Niles? Why he's none other than "Mr. short-term DRAM price" himself.

Dan Niles was the guy who helped fuel last year's August squeeze with the great insight right after the RS Conf that DRAM prices were rising.

From today's Dow Jones:
"Pricing continues to go up," said Dan Niles, an analyst at BancAmerica Robertson Stephens. He said prices on some memory chips are up 20% to 25% from a month ago

Okay, last year when he was touting the stock right before they collapsed the 16's had "rebounded" from 6.70 to 7.10

And now those same 16's are selling for maybe around 30% of what they were back then, but the financial press acts as if he's someone with a terrific track record of predicting the short-term dynamics of DRAM pricing.

He's not.

The reporting on the Soundview initiation was very interesting. If you listened to CNBC you'd actually think Scott Randall had started it as a screaming buy. He started it as "short-term hold/long-term buy", (which IMHO isn't that nutty if long-term means greater than 2-3 years and you're well-diversified).

IMHO, the trick is understanding the psychology of a price movement and anticipating when and why some of the built-in expectations could start to fall apart.

But hey, if Dan "Mr. short-term DRAM price" Niles says DRAM prices are well on the road to a long-term sustained recovery, why even bother trying to think things out? It's not like he's ever been wrong <g>

Good trading,

Tom

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