I could see a pullback to 35-37 sometime before October.
Richard,
Those who think Apple will dip back to 35 or even 37 may be badly mistaken. This little pullback from 41 is beginning to look like a nice ascending right consolidation triangle on the 5-min chart. Not sure yet (or ever for that matter), but we could see a nice breakout anytime. Someone else posted a while back that a flat line like that one today is a trader's friend (forget the exact words), and I don't think the direction is down right now.
bigcharts.com
If we do get a some sort of retrenchment, it is much more likely next week, such as an effort to pin some option strike price or a selloff after the news event. Even then, I would doubt a fall back further than 37 1/2 to 38 in a neutral market is likely (I admit that Apple always seems to move down further than I think it will.). Also, as some have pointed out, Apple could still surprise on the upside even this quarter, given the unknowns about educational sales and the continuing high margin on G3's.
Another chart of interest is the All data weekly with Volume by Price and Volume:
bigcharts.com
This chart shows that Apple has already nearly passed thru the highest volume of resistance based on share sales back to the mid-80's. Given the hype and Apple's relatively low forward-looking PE ratio, the price resistance in the 43-45 range may be easy to break.
If sales of iMacs turn out to be outstanding this weekend, I still think 43 to 44 or better before Options expiration is possible.
Sam
P.S. I learned what to do and what not to do with a strong stock in a market tank. Apple was phenonminal yesterday, but a weak market, followed by a strong recovery doesn't guarantee a further increase in stock price. Just goes to show you that it is a market of stocks. I did manage to trade some August 35's for Oct 40's at good prices and a nice profit. |
