Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 315.93

-0.8%

9:38 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (22942)	8/12/1998 8:29:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (3) of 70976

from the conferance call which i read very interesting. first, morgan said they had pipeline of orders that they believed they could close which he was shocked not one closed. everything that could go wrong did and that is why they got defensive.amat has not made a final decision to fire workers because what i heard is they smell a big turnaround coming and they stated inventory correction is peaked and asia and the world has posponed well over 100 billion in orders. as i stated when i was short the worst the downturn the better the upcycle and all you have to reverse the supply and demand factors of a downturn and switch them with and upturn. also, amat big mistake if you remember is they fired lot people in 1996 and the correction turned quicky in nov of 1996 AND THEY WERE SHORT LABOR. i now believe that their is pent up demand -largest ever-and if you believe technology innovation will continue in the world at some point next year it will come to a head and 1999 will loook like 1995 again. do you really believe companies are going to continue postpone or cancell new equip at the rate they have? at some point you are going to get an order frenzy at a magnitutude never been seen and we will be talking about constraints in equip . its ugly , just like i like it. morgan did not announce any layoffs because he knows its coming to and he will wait to see how fall picks up before they can make a decision. i still go on record as i stated before that november will be the down quarter in amat in the group and the time to buy is around oct or nov. i think amat will be up 10 points after nov numbers. until then amat will trade between 29-36 dollers. so its a trading stock with a bias of building a position at around thirty. you know whats funny is amat is acting just like it did in the summer of 1996. imo.

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