IMO a hostile is out of the question due to big stakes held by Intuit and Integrion, not to mention insiders who firmly believe this company will be worth far more in 5 years than it is today.
I too don't believe in a hostile takeover, but I don't think everything is obvious here.
Let's, just to have some numbers for discussion, say someone offers hostile bid $50 per share. To make it more concrete, let's say the bidder is a company size of FDC with the revenues 50 times larger than CF.
$50 is not too much. The bidder knows what it is buying. The takeover will propell it years ahead of any competition. It is a matter of life and death, besides, if FDC doesn't step in, someone else will. And then it might be death. Remember, IBM paid $60 for Lotus when it was at $30 doing dead cat bounces.
Again, FDC and $50 are used only to make the discussion more concrete only. If FDC splits with MS, which is not impossible, it too may become one of the bidders.
Now, what will the largest holders do?
Intuit. FDC promises it to preserve all special relations existing with CF and 50 times more customers. Sounds good. 20% stake in CF triples in value and can be cashed immediately. Sounds even better. Intuit is not hostile any more.
Integrion. It was created to provide technical assistance for the banks members in the implementing of the Gold Standard. Banks have always had an option to use Integrion with no obligations. BTW, they have already demonstrated it many times.
New standard, that will unite Gold and OFX, is in the works. Will Integrion disintegrate? Who knows, but banks will have even more tendency to go their own ways. BTW, I don't think this development will hurt CF in any way. Banks will go for know-how and CF has a plenty of it.
With all that said, lets imagine FDC approaches the banks members one by one. It is already well known to the banks, and is doing business with many of them. It may get a nod for acquisition from the majority of the banks.
Now Integrion is not hostile any more.
Who is left besides insiders?
The Board of Directors
This is who ultimately says yes or no to any bidder. Some of them are insiders, some not, but all of them have an obligation to look after shareholders interests. This obligation is enforceable, and The Board Members have real chances to get sued for not demonstrating DD. And Kight too.
At the price tag $50, they will have hard time explaining on the shareholders meeting why they refused the offer. Kight's believes that this company will be worth far more in 5 years than it is today will fall on the deaf ears.
Looks like not much hostility left.
Anyway, that was just my fantasies. Today I'd rather forget about reality. |
