chas--
they are already setting it up for a fall. (.25) for q4. this is bad.
they wont make that much.
everyone is transitioning to 64Mb parts, including PC100. now, they ge t geometries down enough to get as many 64's and 16's. avg computer DRAM is not going to rise that much, so you get an environment where there are too many 64Mb parts floating around, even with production cutbacks.
now, going forward, demand will increase as asia recovers. i think they are calling it too soon.
my read, they are dumping shares now, and the fall comes aroudn earnings. at least thats how the game has been played in the past.
loved the blurb about the koreans not being able to transition to DUV. if applied gets desperate enough they will write the financing<G>. additionally, the currency devals have given the asians a pretty good position.
of course, this also assumes that MU will have enough money to transition their fabs.
all in all, a much better report. i think they are right, and i know that prices are going up, but this is way to soon to break out the bolli. and its way too soon to up earnings forecasts that much.
what happens if seimens links with samsung? and the japs arent as desperate as people may think. its just too soon.
good luck to all,
trey |
