JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up?

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To: Step1 who wrote (1333)	8/12/1998 10:31:00 PM
From: FACTUAL	Read Replies (1) of 3902

Thanks for the detailed response. Please accept my apology for a very poor selection of screen names. I do not currently live in Japan, but do spend half my time in Japan. My wife is Japanese and consequently listen to all the news and TV programs via satellite. I have found your views to be perceptive and thoughtful, as there are things to love about Japan without becoming an apologist. I am principally worried that if my assumptions are correct, the type of wholesale change required may take several years to effect, particularly in the large companies. As an anecdotal example, three weeks ago I was inspecting the market for residential property in Shinjuku, Shibuya, and Roppongi. While the prices have declined substantially ( currently about 60-100 million yen for two LDK ) they are still above the price required to clear ( the very substantial ) inventory. Thus the bank loans issue will get worse over time not better. From an investing perspective one can buy focussed ( essentially single product companies )that are internationally competitive and should benefit from potential yen declines ( what is the opposite of endaka?), but they tend to be in low growth markets. For example Toyota is absolutely world class ( and have about $30 billion in cash on the balance sheet ) so look like a good target for investigation, but the prospects for growth in the world auto markets are poor. Apart from borrowing in yen and investing in dollars ( something I do not like to do ) I am wondering what if any my investment strategy for Japan should be. I have not lived in Japan for about a decade but spent some of the roaring eighties in Japan. While I lived there I found an experience unmatched since and enjoy reading your perceptions, one that only a perceptive resident could note. ( I too tried to crystallize debate but was only succesful after a lengthy period of getting to know them and then only in yakkitoris or at karaoke )

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