Hi Polarbear: I was referring to something other than the general state of the market when I said "something is wrong".
Let's look at the share prices (on the JSE), which you have mentioned:
..............2 Jan..............7 Aug........Change(c).....%
Randgold....630c...............430c..........-300c.......-32%
Durban......700c..............1110c..........+410c.......+59%
Harmony....1190c..............2560c.........+1370c......+115%
Undoubtedly, Randgold is the "odd man out". While the other shares have risen Randgold has fallen. It is quite clear that the market does not hold the same expectations for the share that you do. Harmony, in fact, has risen substantially -- particularly now, with the takeover of Evander, which is a proven resource and for which it has paid a pittance.
Another aspect which concerns me about Randgold is that the whole show will be merged with JCI and Cons African Mines at the end of the year. For this reason, YOUR estimated valuation is actually irrelevant --- what will decide what Randold is worth is what the "paper-dealers" decide it is worth. Undoubtedly you will be paid in stock for your Randgold shares. Then you can try and decide what the new group is worth!
I mentioned before that, in my opinion, Western Areas (South Deep) will be the richest tangible asset in the new merged group. You may be interested to know that Western Areas features daily in the "New Lows" column of the local newspaper and is now worth R15 compared to over R75 at its peak in 1966. Clearly, someone is very worried --- or whatever.
Apropos the POG, as far as SAf golds are concerned, the gold price in dollars is largely unimportant compared to the value of the Rand, itself. The mines get paid in Rands. At the moment, because of the persistent devaluation of the local currency, the SAf gold price is at a historic peak (R1800 +/-) while the gold price in $US is near a twenty year low.
In my opinion, the main factor determining the POG($US) is the value of the US dollar or now, particularly, the value of the Yen. Not necessarily on a daily basis but, most certainly, over time. If the Yen falls to 155-160 to the $US, as is widely mooted, then I believe the POG could fall to $250 +/-.
In conclusion, and putting another damper on the fire, I wonder what dividends you are referring to? As far as I know, Randgold pays nothing.(I see you answered this in #103)
Regards
S
PS. Nice to see some activity on the board, for a change.
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