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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: tekgk who wrote (16165)	8/13/1998 8:29:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) of 18056

Tek, it is always a pleasure to read your notes. However, I disagree with a couple of points. The 401k savings figures for Americans is not insignificant. They will be insignificant in the event of a protracted slump in the stock market. For one, the funds will be faced with redemptions for two reasons - unemployment and market slump. If you add that vicious cycle to the foreign money repatriation, it is possible to see Pretcher's sub-1000 scenario for the DOW. For my kids sake, I certainly hope it doesn't get there. Second, October and November being so notorious for market declines, I am speculating that many folks will try to get out much earlier this time. It is possible that they will try to beat the September pre-announcing season by selling early. Given the current market conditions, shakiness in the bull camp, situation in Asia and Russia, August is as good a month as any for the crash or steep correction. That's why I say 4 weeks. Good luck! -MMV

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