Wonderful article!
I hope everyone took the time to read the full article - please do if you can.
However, if you didn't read it all and to highlight the potential impact for MRVC, here are just a few excerpts from the article. MRVC is again positioning at just the right time for another huge market.
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Right now, it's more economical to lease fiber than it is to build Sonet networks," he says. "If DWDM lowers the cost of fiber, it could create an opportunity to invest in fiber in our current network. DWDM probably will not turn the LEC world on this year, but at the end of 1999 and the beginning of 2000 it will catch on fire. But we probably won't see any cost breaks until 1999."
Within two years' time, DWDM will be making its mark in metropolitan area networks and around the globe. "Networks are going to become extremely data-centric, because trade and commerce between North America and the rest of the world are going to explode and backbone networks are going to require huge amounts of capacity," says Pawan Jaggi of Fujitsu.
Observers predict the onset of optical layer networking by 2000. Commercial use of optical add/drop multiplexers able to dynamically add and drop traffic will make their way into long-haul networks in the next three years, as will optical cross-connects that can route individual wavelengths, Jaggi predicts. "Two years out, I see carriers beginning to build real optical layer networks," says Tim Krause, senior director of business development for Alcatel's optical networks business unit.
Systems offered by vendors today make it easy for carriers to meet the need for bandwidth incrementally, because they can add one channel at a time. Therefore, they do not need to make capital expenditures that are not accompanied by a concurrent return on their investment. "Once a carrier has all of its optical amplifiers in place, the cost to add capacity is the cost of installing a plug-in card at both ends of the chain," says CIENA's Berthold.
DWDM's role in the network today and its role five years from now are
worlds apart. "We are very early in this game," McFadden says. "I think the optical world is where the semiconductor industry was 20 years ago. In terms of manufacturing, cost, etc., we have a long ways to go. However those 20 years will pass in 10. And if we are real smart, maybe it will take five years.
[and I think MRVC is really smart] |
