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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (24197)8/13/1998 1:29:00 PM
From: Philipp  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Jim:

If you wipe out all the money that came into the market
since last Fall, I believe you can kiss
this system goodby, & get your passport ready.

That's a bit extreme. You won't wipe out all the money
that came into the market, just the paper profits (+ a bit
more). But all these profits were built on completely unrealistic
expectations of the market. I agree that when this bubble
finally bursts it will be a blood bath, but what do you think is
the alternative? That the bubble becomes even more "exuberant"?
To make expectations even more unrealistic and risk an even
bigger fall in the future? There is one thing you can be sure
of and that is that bubbles burst. The alternative that the market
just goes sideways for several years till valuations have
caught up with the runaway market is just unrealistic.

I also don't agree with you that a 30 % + correction would be
that disastrous. I read recently that historically there has
been a 40 % correction every four years and the last one we had
is now 11 years ago.

Finally, what about Ms Cohen? Wasn't she supposed to announce
today that the correction is over and trigger another 300 point
rally (like last October)? The market does not look that weak
to me today. So I think there is a potential for a late-afternoon
rally.

Good trading (but be prepared for the worst).

Phil
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