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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 273.40

-0.1%

Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: Alomex who wrote (16599)	8/13/1998 2:47:00 PM
From: Andrew Danielson	Read Replies (1) of 213177

I couldn't resist prognosticating a bit myself along Alomex's lines. 1) Strong short-term resistance around $41--understandable given the large recent move. 2) Short-term consolidation and support building around $38-$39 (I'll make a wild guess that those expecting prices below $37 1/2 will be disappointed barring negative news). We already did a fair amount of support-building in the 35-36 range in the month following last earnings. A drop back to those levels without a general market tank should IMO be taken as a specifically negative sign for AAPL stock, not a normal "consolidation." 3) Break above $41 resistance when first indications of iMac sales leak out (revealing to some degree how Apple's manufacturing is keeping up (or not) with demand). Probably sometime in September 4) When earnings release comes out, AAPL will be hovering in the $40-42 range. Agreed, any drop of revenue or profit will be met with a large hit in the stock. 5-10% revenue growth as Fred Anderson predicted will be positive for the stock because many still don't believe in AAPL's revenue-growth abilities. Revenue would have to exceed $1,600 to see AAPL immediately shoot above $45. 5) January price target of $48 6) We'll talk about Dell-like PE and price to book ratios when AAPL gets there (which, I might add, we have a LONG way to go before that happens). Remember that forward-looking PE ratio with projected earnings of $2.02 (quoted on quicken.com) is under 20. Not exactly Dell-like, is it? <<" Considering past Apple trading patterns I think the most likely scenario is 1) strong resistance above $40 2) short term consolidation and support building around $35-$37 3) break above $40 resistance pattern around earnings release time 4) If revenues and units shipped are down, even slightly, the stock will get creamed, otherwise it will continue its upward march. Dell-like ratios are reserved (surprise surprise) for companies posting strong earnings and growing revenues (I wonder why? :-)."

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