Still sounds like a crash scenario. Possible, yes, but I'm thinking more of a garden variety bear market along with a mild recession. Many, many investors will be very discouraged and may stay away for the market for some time, so the rebound won't be as sharp as from the last several 10% corrections. I'd expect a good recovery after Y2k fears are past (one way or the other) and Asia finally hits bottom and really reforms. At 25% down, I won't worry so much about whether it gets to 30%. There's nothing magic about either number anyway. If I am picking good companies and getting them cheap, I'll just put them away and not worry about them. That's tough to do right now. And nothing says I'd have to get back in all at once. The bottoming and rebound, as I said above, should be slower, so stocks could be accumulated over time. In other words, the environment will be nothing like today and, hopefully, the momentum daytrading shops will be less busy and the market less volatile.
Bob
PS: Looking like a bad close for the bulls. No 3:20 rally for Art Cashun (sp?) to tell us about. Trannies looking to make a new low and 8500 giving way on the Dow. Still got that stop in? |
