G'day all - dear Mike, actually Dr Yardeni's statement, as you paraphrase/quote it, doesn't necessarily run counter to the thread's, if we consider the totality. I mean, since we [thread in general] ve talked alot about Japan. It has had low interest rate for the past several years, but evidently that didn't help to alleviate the credit crunch. In the end, down she went!
So, yes, if there is a recession despite the low interest rate, then the US will be in big trouble. I am not saying Dr Yardeni's comment is overstating the precarious situation. What I am suggesting is that while an economic model is far too complex for me, one has to consider multiplicity of factors - and maybe even have faith in the Fed to relax the rate if growth rate is heading toward the negative territory.
Btw, I don't envy Dr Yardeni's position. Had his employer listened to him - or if he had warned the Asian Flu more often than the Y2K [saw him with Dr Ed Yourdon - separately - on a PBS show about Y2k awhile back,] maybe Quattrone would still be running the DTG <VBG>
best, Bosco |
