Gregg, for reasons I can't/won't go in to, I have avoided posting my fear for the Q in terms of its vulnerability in the financial markets. [my prior whimperings in this regard took the form of: gee, wouldn't it be grand if we could form a strategic alliance with one of the big boys, gosh we're kind of a little peanut given the size of the rest of the elephants at the telecom circus, etc.]
Well, now that the subject is on the table, let me say that this scenario makes utterly perfect sense to me, damn it. First, you try to whip the Q with normal and customary FUD [cdma wears combat boots and won't work, blah, blah, blah]. When the number of puffs on that cigar starts to look a little anemic, you sue'em. At the same time of course you're frantically trying to engineer around the IPR's. Then you make your vaporware announcement by which time everybody has forgotten that your vaporware will be the same cdma you said at various times a) didn't work or b) if it did, you invented it in the first place. The net result of the above is Q = 5, Ericy = 0. So now the real end game begins: politics and money.
The politics is good for, what, maybe three more years before Europe caves? You guys know I ain't exactly a jingoist, so please accept this as a simple statement of fact rather than Surfer Mike breaking into a chorus of Yankee Doodle Dandy. We are living in yet another era of pax Americana. The U.S. has regained and arguably surpassed its hegemnoy position realized at the end of WWII. Therefore, in a showdown between us and Europe, it's over before it begins. Finland can scream till the sardines turn purple, but if the U.S. wants to tell them to stuff their GSM in the nearest fjord, then that's the way it's going to work. So politics is only good as a temporary delaying tactic.
Okay kids, what's that leave? What is the one weapon that Ericy has a whole load more of and can use at will? Go to the head of your class: if you can't beat'em, buy'em. But before you do, make sure to knock a couple billion off the price so the takeover 'premium' looks rich. Presto, zingo--launch a bear raid in an already crappy market and those jerks will walk away with the Q for a pittance.
This is a very ugly and very real scenario. Now add the fact that the Q is spinning Spin Co. Terrific, now they only have to buy a smaller piece to get the IPR's, handset/ASIC manufacturing capability which are the crown jewels.
Me not liking this one bit. The only upside, and it ain't much, I see is that Lucent or Tellabs or Nortel will step in rather than let Ericy take it for zip. So then we get zip +. Big deal. :( Mike Doyle |
