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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ)
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To: C.K. Houston who wrote (21903)8/13/1998 5:43:00 PM
From: paul e thomas  Read Replies (1) of 31646
 
CHERYL, You know me well enough from other boards to realize I have been very successfully investing in Y2K stocks from almost the beginning of any investor interest as a result of recommendations from a member of my family who runs one of largest Y2K service providers WW program. I became attracted to TAVA in 1997 as a result of a belief that the Company had a sound business beyond the year 2000 . I like many of the analysts viewed the Y2K revenue and earnings stream as an abnormal cash flow stream good for perhaps 10 quarters.In looking at the TAVA price chart on a longer term basis I am struck by the fact that the stock is now trading at what it was back in the 3rd quarter of 1997.This was well before it was clear that TAVA was going to be successful in establishing relationships with a number of multinational firms. I view the current focus of many of the longs on this board about the issue of the next quarterly earnings as totally irrelevant as to what the price of TAVA will be 18 months from now. The issue remains what will be the TAVA business be in the post 2000 era. I once calculated a net present value of TAVA at 12$ per share .I still believe this number. I for one hope that in the next conference call much more emphasis is given by the management to really spelling out why they believe their post 2000 strategy is sound than giving great details about their Y2K successes. I have followed enough Y2K firms very closely to know the institutional investors are hardly paying attention to short term issues and are concentrating on longer term.
As for you BILL WEXLER lets just say you have been right so far in your bearish stance towards TAVA,ZITL,DDIM etc.I too saw the handwriting on the wall and bailed out of all Y2K stocks except IMRS.But if TAVA has the competitive position I believe it has in a growing market niche it will eventually reflect it in a positive cash flow stream that will lead to significantly higher prices than the market now believes TAVA is worth.TAVA is oversold none the less I will not be surprised to see TAVA prices fall significantly for the balance of this year.This board reminds me of the early days of the IOMEGA and America Online boards. Too many people jumped aboard the stock on the basis of trying to make a killing without sufficient analysis of longer term issues. One of BILL WEXLERS tenets for selecting a stock to deride and short is to find a stock with cult-like supporters.I find it very difficult to follow this stock via this board because of the huge volume of posts including an unnecessary number trying to put down BILL WEXLER. I still plan to make TAVA as only one of two Y2K stocks I will hold long term.
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