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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)

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To: jack w garnes jr. who wrote (13278)	8/13/1998 10:44:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (1) of 23519

jack, You are correct that the reality is that we have a stock price that has gone terribly South. After watching the trading of this stock on a level II screen for the past 8 months, all I can say is that had I know how manipulated this stock is, I would have never touched it. I knew today that just as usual that the stock would be pulled down to an all time low just towards the end of the day. It was the perfect psychological ploy to knock off the latest support level of 5 1/4. I predict now that if Vivus does not come out with some sort of news before the bell we will crack below 5. I think alien was right about his theory that if Vivus kept its usual silence they would take this sucker down to the 4 3/4 level. The sadest part is that we have a product with great potential (even with Viagra) in an exploding ED market yet Vivus continues to get an F- in its marketing abilities. They screwed up by ever messing with the lower doses in 1997 (had they geared all their production to the higher doses there would not have been a shortage problem). This also created unnecessary failures in treating patients. They also screwed up thinking that magazine articles or TV commercials would make a difference (not the type of product you advertise to the general public). They spent 26 million in Q1 buying back shares at 15. hindsight is 20/20 but they should have kept the powder dry and defended 9 11/16. They knew that they would be facing Pfizer with a 4k sales force against their 75 salesforce. Renting 150 more reps was not going to really change anything (except more expenses). Currently their biggest mistake is not realizing that investors are generally impatient and want to see quick results. They are living in a dream world if they think everyone is going to wait until the end of the year for them find a domestic partner. I believe that we will hear about a partner by the next conference call in October but they really need to cut a deal sooner than that if they want to capitalize on the Viagra safety issues and see a much more profitable September. Anyway, our worst fears have been realized. We bought stock of a company that just can't keep up with the bigger players. If and when they announce a domestic partner I expect a rapid run back to maybe the 9-10 range. If Q3 shows a profit above estimates and the company sees a much better Q4 then expect the stock to move up even higher (12-15 range?). No chance of hitting 20 unless all these things happen and Q4 shows earnings in the .20 to .30 range which will prove that a $1.00+ 1999 is doable. I know--a lot of ifs but I think that the ifs I mentioned are not unrealistic goals that can not be accomplished. In the mean time we will just have to continue sweating it out.

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