Brinker misses yet another intermediate term correction. Stay tuned to this weekends show to catch the latest spin from the master of spin. Remember, as Kirk noted earlier, Brinker is more than an educator, he's an entertainer as well. And this weekend's show should be one for the "Best of" series, IMHO.
Brinker defines an intermediate term correction as a pull-back between 10%-20%. His timing model is supposed to be able to forecast such corrections since intermediate term corrections can often lead to bear markets. As of Friday's close, the DJIA, S&P 500, and Wilshire 5000 have corrected 9.8%, 10.4%, and 10.7%, respectively, (based on closing prices). Uh-oh! Time to retune that timing model again, Bob. This is the second time in the last year that Brinker has missed an intermediate term correction. (Previous was Oct. '97)
Furthermore, Brinker has now missed his opportunity for scoring a direct hit on this latest buying opportunity based on Brinker's own definition of a direct hit, which is coming within 3% of the closing low. The buying opportunities for the DJIA and S&P 500 were 8650 and 110, respectively, as per the August 1998 issue of MARKETIMER. As of Friday's close, the DJIA is within 2.6% of 8650 and the S&P 500 is within 3.4% of 110.
What will be interesting to see is how Brinker will justify using the DJIA as his benchmark for the measurement of his timing capabilities. The DJIA is obviously the index that hasn't corrected a full 10% and is still within 3% of his buy point. Brinker has long maintained that the DJIA is not a good benchmark. And when comparing mutual fund returns he uses either the S&P 500 or the Wilshire 5000, via the Vanguard funds.
Will he dismiss any calls on this subject by quoting the DJIA only and completely disregard the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000? That will be weak from an education stand point, but it will be entertainment "Brinker style" at it's best. I tell you, between waiting to see how Brinker handles this situation and how Clinton handles his own situation Monday, I can't wait. When it comes to combining education and entertainment, Moneytalk is second to none. It's even better than the Brady Bunch.
Best Regards.
Rillinois |
