Immi- I must admit I'm getting tired of having to look at the bright side. First it's mandatory, that all listen to the conference call at 1-800-753-9756. Listen carefully to Mike B. in this call. Hear the tone of his voice and the strongness of his opinions. He has been in this business for over 23 years,a lot more than mgt. of Ciena.
Let me just paraphrase him. The merger is a done deal, this is a long term deal, not just a one 1/4 love affair. There are no fundamental changes in the market, all other long term issues are still in place and optical networking is the wave of the future in telecommunications around the world. They have not begun to access the synergies and the benefits of merging products. Their target is still a 2-4 cents dilution of earnings per share for each of the next two quarters. Their focus is on longer term planning, based on comprensive global strategical planning."We will do what we have said we will do"."This quarter for Ciena is a abberition of accounting, and we will recover quickly". Ciena has 25 salespersons and Tellab's has 300 in the USA alone, who are chomping at the bit to sell new combined products. Tellab's to put Ciena's products into RBOC'S and MCI.
So what the HELL happened today? IMHO Various large mutual funds, namely AIM, Fidelity, Vanguard, etc. use and have computer screening programs that focus on earnings warnings and anticipated changes of momentum of net earnings. These programs, then trigger automatic sales, trying to bail out these funds in their major positions in such darlings as
Tellab's or Ciena. It could very well be that the Fidelity analyst was out massaging his golf balls, while his computer at the office was putting in these automatic massive sell orders. Now did this computer analyse the overall situation, or listen to the overall long term plans or listen to the cc. <HELL NO> It took a upfront public pronouncement by CI and Tlab's and ran hard to sell trying to beat any other sellers. The market started way down from the get-go.
In 10 minutes, I "lost" one year's salary, but ladies and gentlemen, it is not lost, if I don't panic and sell at these levels, which I won't. I don't believe that automatic sell programs by any number of computers, exhibit any long term understanding of the future of optical networking in the overall telecommunications global buildup. I agree with Geo Gilder in regards to this being a good strategic merger.
This is a buying opportunity, all is not gloom and doom, we just live in an age where lazy Mutual Fund managers let computers do their automatic sell orders,regardless of long term prospects.
DAVE DICKERSON |
