Philip,
>>>>>>>>>> My question to you is whether you really believe that, if the SPX breaks through those levels on Monday/Tuesday and reach your
minimum target of 1030, it will stop before 960? If it closes below
the 1050 area, it will have broken all sorts of support lines,
long-term trendlines, that I would consider that a clear crash signal.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
You are correct that heading lower will break support lines and trendlines and would indicate lower lows, but it does not mean that the bottom will drop out immediately. Many feel that 8400 and 1060 was the crucial level; however the crucial level per my analysis is the 8000-8200 range and I mentioned previously that there are 2 support lines at 8200 and 8050. In other words, I feel that their crucial levels are a tad high, and even if my levels are broken it does not mean we go straight down immediately.
Per my analysis the most critical technical support is around 8175, which for eaze I call 8200, and the most important psychological support for now is 8000, since a break of that indicates that we just went negative for the year and it is a thousand point mark on the DOW.
>>>>>>>>Is it possible that your 5 of 1 wave is not as extended as you predict? I could see a subwave count that has already completed 2, 3, 4 and 5 on Friday. We could then interpret that as a triple bottom. A good foundation for a rally.<<<<<<<<
I am using my short-term analysis which is right now in the lower-mid range and still has a ways to go before hitting the bottom which becomes my CLASS BUY signal. I am making an assumption that with all this negativity in the market my short-term technicals will get to a CLASS BUY status before turning up. It is a fair assumption since in a normal market, without all this negativity, such technicals normally will get that low. So I made a calculation that the soonest the DOW can reach CLASS BUY status, it would need to drop 200-300 points over the next 2 days, which would bring it to the 8250-8150 range. That would be the minimun the DOW would need to drop, and if it drops lower the CLASS BUY signal just gets stronger. Statistically, if it is not a true bear market, the success rate of these CLASS BUYS are extremely high, in the 95% range. Of course it could be argued that we are now in a bear market, but I am using greater than a 15% decline in the DOW and SPX as my parameters to determine a bear market.
Hope I made some sense. |
