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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: HairBall who wrote (24350)8/15/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: Philipp  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
LG, Don:

After Friday's actions, the charts and technicals certainly
look pretty dismal. I just read that yesterday's market drop
was attributed to the fear of a ruble devaluation. If that can
move the US market, that must be an extremely bad sign and
illustrates how nervous investors have become. Actually I think
that this is just a weak excuse. It also seems increasingly
clear that we are close to levels that could break this market
violently to the downside, whether we are already very close or
whether we still have a few hundred points (Dow) to go as Don's
analysis shows.

I still have serious problems with a BK next week. Apart from
the fact that this should be a week with some positive factors,
I would find it quite unusual to have a significant correction/
crash without a decent counter-rally; sort of just slowly
rolling over and then falling off the cliff. I don't remember any
correction like that historically or in recent years in
currencies or stock markets.

So, my guess is that it won't happen and that it will hold
as Don expects, even though I have my problems with the levels
Don still considers safe. I will probably buy some additional
crash protection if there is a weak Monday morning rally.
Since Clinton will not confess to the public before Monday
evening, any Clinton relief rally cannot start before Tuesday
morning anyway.

Should be another interesting week.

Good trading to all,

Phil
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