Hi LG; I revised that 1120 along time ago, and it never had any thing
to do with a melt down, except I said if we took it out we would go
lower. I've been trying to play the DIA for a bounce which tracks the DJI since WED. a week ago. I've posted every position within an hour
of taking it, and my stops also. I got stopped out yesterday, that
put me even , and that includes commissions.
All my meltdown procedure has mostly been tied to those who call
for 7000 on the DOW, and I've been trying to say that figure as a
low is not based on anything but some hot air blow hards pulling
numbers out of the air , as if we go that low there is not one reason
to think we will stop there, but plenty of reason to think down momentum will have picked up.
The market has been hanging tough so far at these levels,
and shorts are still coming in, while not at record levels
here is the put call ratio.
**************** DAILY MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS ***********************
PUT/CALL RATIO: This is a 10 DMA of daily put volume divided by daily call volume.
High readings indicate excessive bearish sentiment (which is bullish)
and low readings indicate excessive bullish sentiment
(which is bearish).
The approximate range for this ratio since 1992
is 0.52 to 1.13 (CBOE) .825 neutral above that is bullish
0.77 to 1.55 (OEX). 1.16 neutral above that is bullish
08/14 08/13 08/12 08/11 08/10
Put/Call Ratio 10DMA (CBOE).: 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71
Put/Call Ratio 10DMA (OEX)..: 1.03 1.01 1.01 0.99 0.99
WE are still bearish on the put/call ratio but numbers are moving
up.
-------------------
The DJI does not represent the real market as well as the
S&P 500, but it does effect the psychology of the market perhaps
more, as so many people watch and trade off it even if they don't
have any of the stocks in it.
--------------------
I have not ruled out 8000-8200 as down side to the Dow, and have
been very cautious with my dip bets. But there is good chance
Wed a week ago was the bottom. If she does fall below 8000 taht's
when I will really get worried, at 7600 then I think the a Melt
down may be unstoppable, hence 7000 could be just number going
by as people rush in a panic to get out.
---------------------
I'm still bottom fishing because I don't see much odds of any of
the above, I have not predicted a melt down from these levels,
if any thing I'm still looking for a rally.
My general theme has been that serious down turns don't come
until after a very strong small cap blow off top.
As when the Small caps hit blow off tops, the market is not
very liquid, hence a sell off at that point causes a big capitulation, Them having sold off already, this has me thinking
those looking for the capitulation don't understand in effect
what causes it ( the selling off of thinly traded issues )
or realize that they have already sold way down from their tops.
Jim |
