Hello Oracle,
OK, my rose colored glasses response...
>>1) She gapped open due to arbitrage between US and Brazil, ie Brazil was already up 3% at the open.<<
Not sure of your point here...this would be the case whenever excitement has strengthened over night or early in the morning.
>>2) From there it was downhill, until is settled in a 95-97 range.<<
So was sentiment in general...I think most were surprised to see any kind of up close heading into a very nervous, and perhaps *key* weekend. The DOW was deceiving yesterday. If it weren't for JP Morgan, the DOW would have painted a much different story for most of the day.
>>3) Low volume.<<
Volume at 3,777,200 was actually fairly healthy in my book...coming off a day that I believe was the second highest volume ever on NYSE for TBR, and heading into a very nervous weekend for global markets. TBR was actually holding a reasonable gain when the DOW cracked late afternoon.
>>4) T/A still showing probablity of continued downtrend.<<
Not as heavy into TA, but if I were to guess, it depends on what set of rules you apply, and how their interpreted. Maybe STX or someone else could offer some input into this. I don't have a lot of respect for TA other than support and resistance levels. Generally, good news and traders move towards next resistance, bad and they move it towards next support. Looking at many charts, I can argue strongly that history does not repeat itself over and over, other than to the extent of events steering an equity to support and resistance levels due to the number of folks that follow it.
>>5) Clinton (Monday), Russia, Japan, Hong Kong (possible currency attack monday bank holiday), and China.<<
Well these are the concerns of the weekend. I'd add three...FOMC meeting Tuesday (seems this always causes some apprehension), potential for negative CPI early next week, and Brazil equity options expiration.
>>6) Last trade but one was 95.875<<
Yes, but this was still up an eigth on the day. I saw this as an extreme display of optimism considering all the factors that could send us all running for cover on Monday. And, in terms of a closing figure, it's the last trade that counts...96 1/2.
>>Bullish list : - 1) Listing announcement date - due when ? 2) Fundamentals<<
I'd add...3) potential for a positive CPI; 4) potential for the Clinton thing to somehow turn into a positive...may basically be over after he speaks Monday night; 5) Pretty bullish story out of Indonesia last night (will post next); 6) Russia, Japan and Hong Kong could turn into an extreme positive or negative...per the stories, speculation was towards the positive side on Russia late last week. Japan, could hear solid news from them anytime...no news or weak news would probably not be great; 7) If any kind of upside bias on Monday, Brazilian equity options expiration could work in our favor; 8) David Anderson bought more last week.
>>Any others - Steve ? (your absence is a worry !)<<
I haven't been absent Oracle, just humbled for now. Appreciate your concern. One other thought is the DOW...at some point this thing will bottom and do an about face. I don't know that it's over yet, but I view the high 7900's to 8250 as the bottom. We're not that far off from these levels. When the masses are convinced we've bottomed, I expect the market to come back strongly. If we're gonna sell it off some more, I hope to just get it over with Monday. The fact is that the FED will likely be forced to reduce interest rates soon...then we have a whole nother ball game.
Hong Kong, Russia, Brazil and others are extrememly oversold. The real hasn't been affected by this turmoil at all...just Brazilian equities. TBR is trading ridiculously low, just don't see much downside. Short of a real blood bath, I expect the anticipation of the listings to carry us higher until the big event happens. I expect news on these listings one way or the other next week. Wonder how much advance warning we'll get? Always possible the actual breakup becomes a short term non-event or even a bummer due to confusion, but investors following TBR have had plenty of time to work out their strategies at this point. This is the event that will allow TBR to start reaching some kind of fair value, be it sooner or later. I don't believe even the laggards will sell off much. If I understand some of these will be close to penny stocks, I'll bet they get snapped up and stored away due to their low cost.
>>Still short - for the moment !<<
Good luck...it's a crap shoot, 50-50.
sf |
