Jay, I'll just copy the two paragraphs below:
George, I am not married to one scenario or another, I listen to my turnips and while they do get goofy from time to time, they have not been too bad in looking into the austere future. Right now, they are seeing only "failing rallies" in the near future and their Sep/Oct minimelt is still intact, except that this will not be toward 8250, but somewhat lower.
Over the very long time horizons, I see the developments in Asia and Russia (which will spread first to Poland and the rest of the prior "dominions" and then to Europe) creating a slow down in the development of "consumer societies in those countries. The stage will be set, IMHO, for a lengthy period like the 1966 to 1982 period here, where markets worldwide digest overcapacity, reliquify financially and slowly build a base. That means that we can see those markets bound in a very wide trading range (factor of 2 from the bottoms to the tops for more "mature markets" and possibly factor of 4 for the more volatile one) for years. This is no time for "long term investors,
stock selection and timing will be king over at least 5 years here (at least as I see it right now) and possibly longer elsewhere.
Zeev |
