blankmind,
You probably have already read this but I thought I would post it again (my comments inserted in between sentences).
Statement by Wole Fayemi of Cruttenden Roth produced on June 10, 1998.
Vivus stock price 6 15/16
Reiteration of STRONG BUY on Vivus with 1998 target price of $23.00
"We believe there is increasing support for our thesis that safety and efficacy issues should limit the market for Viagra creating an opportunity for Vivus."
Two months later the safety issues are questioned more than ever by the medical community. So far Pfizer refuses to change the labeling of Viagra. Labeling for Viagra is more stringent than US FDA requirements. An article presented yesterday claims a failure rate of Viagra in the "real world" of 40 to 50% unlike the 20 to 30% claimed by Pfizer in their skewed studies. Other than the "at risk" population not even trying Viagra, Vivus has a very significant pool of Viagra failures to draw to MUSE.
"As more and more patients understand the risks associated with Viagra and patients where Viagra doesn't work seek alternatives, we believe Vivus should capture a % of this large amount of patients."
IMO many at risk men may have much more difficulty obtaining a Viagra prescription from a well versed PCP than 2 months ago since many more adverse reactions have been sited by the FDA. Also, many of these at risk patients will not want to take the risk of trying Viagra due to the increased media attention as of lately discussing the dangers of Viagra. I believe the dramatic decline of new Viagra scripts (down 65% since May) is in large part due to the increasing concerns behind the safety issues.
Vivus has a very large pool of ED patients to draw from even in the presence of Viagra. A Viagra failure rate of 45% leaves Vivus with an approximately 90,000 weekly IMS script pool based on an Average of 200,000 weekly total Viagra scripts. The current IMS MUSE total of 4,500 would increase to 27,000 if Vivus could capture 25% of Viagra failures. In fact if Vivus were to capture a mere 15% of the Viagra failures, they would increase there total script count to 18,000 which is significantly higher than the preViagra levels of 15,800 in 1997.
If Vivus can sign up a strong domestic partner, we should IMO see a weekly MUSE total script count in excess of 20,000 within one fiscal quarter. The partnership along with the foreign MUSE demand should bring Vivus and its stock price to much more respectable levels. |
