lt, i happen to agree with you. especially the airline industry which will be hurt badly by any increase in oil prices. and there is a limit to how low oil can and will go. they will NEVER give it away for free. if you have the patience to wait a quarter or maybe even less, the airlines may have a half price sale (stock price that is).
i state a quote form a book and then explain my anology for doing so. "the more it changes, the more it stays the same." not sure which book i read it in, but it still applies today. it is my opinion that we are setting up to repeat what happened in 1987 on my birthday (oct 19). all the sign are already in place. only this time iit may be much worse. i am predicting dow <7000 by jan 99. i don't think we will ever see the 1000, but anything is possible. and as you stated, it is going to get ugly, really ugly. many mutual fund managers will be hurt, with many of them jumping out windows or whatever. just look at all the past bear markets and you will see what i mean.
now to back up what i say. data for the past three weeks on advances verse declines puts decliners far ahead of advances by almost 2.5 to one. that includes the 2 up days we saw recently. the new highs to new lows data is even worse. new lows have been outnumbering new highs by nearly 10-1, every day for 2 weeks. while some may say that now is the time you can buy these stocks "cheap", i think time will show that the momentum will not stop abd you can buy them MUCH cheaper. or if you are brafve enough to buy puts or be short, the rewards will be quite large.
just my 2 cents worth. |
