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To: Kevin F. Durkin
(22109 )
From: rt1^
Saturday, Aug 15 1998 12:36PM
ET
Reply # of 22144
All,
Not long or Short, retired and leaving the country in Oct.99
(pre-planned, not Y2K induced), just some food for thought.
Best Wishes to all.
rt
The financial community weighs in with it's best guess Y2K
scenario
'Confidential' Y2k Economic briefing, NYC
8.14.98 Morgan-Stanley Investments
Timeline of Y2K Events
"To watch for a sign of the reality of this:"
Fall of 1998
The Fall will see stockpiling by only the insiders (and
"survivalists"). Some food supply companies will
begin to run behind schedule (this is already happening), and
gold & silver supplies will begin to dwindle
as precious coin dealers get backlogged.
Winter 1998
Christmas of 1998 will proceed as normal, few people will be
thinking about Y2K (still). The wise are
busy preparing, learning new skills, and continuing their
stockpiling efforts. Food is still plentiful and there
is no panic, although the news stories about Y2K continue to
increase, especially around the New Year.
December 31, 1998
This is the "magic date" when nearly all large companies have
promised they will be done with their
coding. When this date actually hits, and people begin to realize
more than half the Y2K programming
projects are behind schedule, it's going to set off "the blame
game" where CEOs and government officials
start to come under increasing pressure to solve the Y2K
problem.
January 1999
With one year remaining, and most Y2K software projects way
behind schedule, a few more people
begin to wake up to the reality now only a year away.
"Stockpiling" moves from the fringe survivalist
community to more mainstream families, and suppliers
nationwide start to get really stretched. Bulk food
(for storage) will likely have a 4-6even 12 month wait on
orders, and gold & silver prices will be on the
rise.
Spring 1999
Sensational news stories continue their impact on the American
people, instilling a sense of fear about
Y2K. While some companies will announce they are now
"compliant," others are secretly way behind
schedule. Y2K programmers are now earning $200 / hour, and
there still aren't enough. Recipients of
government checks have no idea this is the last year they are
going to get "free money" .
Summer of 1999
This is when the real panic starts to hit. Banks will notice an
increase in cash withdrawals as a small
segment of the populations begins to withdraw cash out of fear
of the bank collapses. The news will be
kept quiet in the banking industry, of course, although bank
Presidents will be pleading with the Federal
Reserve to do something. Quietly, the Treasury Dept. will begin
printing more money, fueling the spiraling
inflation that will kick in just a few months later. Additional
lawsuits will be filed against software
companies whose products are non-Y2K compliant. You will
also see a barrage of press releases from
companies saying they are now Y2K complaint and ready for
their clocks to roll over.
August 24, 1999
On August 24, the GPS system fails worldwide. (Global
Positioning System). This is due to a known bug
in the GPS firmware that will unexpectedly subtract 1024
weeks from the transmitted date beginning on
August 24, 1999. The U.S. Navy has known about this bug for
years and has publicly disclaimed any
responsibility for people who might happen to get lost (hikers
using GPS devices, etc.). There will be a
barrage of news reports on that day, similar to the news when
the Galaxy IV satellite went down, and a
few ships will get lost at sea. Air traffic will be affected. The
military will secretly be on full alert (because
their guided missiles won't work anymore!) but most regular
folks won't notice it. However, the more
observant members of society will realize this is a "distant early
warning" about things to come. After
all, if GPS is that fragile, what about the rest of society's
computers? These people will then begin
preparations for Y2K, adding to the pressures on the banking
system (cash withdrawals) and the supply
business (food, medical, ammo, etc.). At this point, a lot of
suppliers will be out of stock on some items or
simply way too busy to fill orders.
September 9, 1999
On this day, 9/9/99, we will get a small taste of Y2K. This date
was used in many mainframe applications
as an "end of record" indicator, and as 9/9/99 shuts down a few
critical database systems around the
world, we will get another wave of news reports that will add to
the groundswell of fear that now clutches
the attention of the public. Cash withdrawals will continue,
purchasing of supplies will be in a near panic
state. People trying to buy what they need will now be greeted
with busy signals or, "sorry, we're out of
that."
October, 1999
October will give rise to increased calls for immediate Y2K
compliance. Banks, government agencies, and
companies will all lie. They will say they are compliant even
when they aren't, because they know that
saying they are "still working on it" amounts to financial
suicide at this point. It's possible that serious bank
runs begin in October as people pull their funds out of
suspected non compliant banks. The FDIC will be
very busy (and worried). The stock market, if it has not already
crashed at this point, will begin a massive
downturn.
November, 1999
A massive meteor shower, already announced by NASA, will
wipe out some communications satellites,
giving the world another small taste of Y2K. Some religious
cults will see the shower as a sign from the
heavens, and this will unleash another round of panic buying
from people whose money isn't already lost in
failed banks. Cash withdrawals continue and the White House
may consider invoking the Emergency
Powers Act at this point. If that happens, all cash withdrawals
will be made illegal and the real panic will
set in.
December, 1999
Assuming the banks are still solvent, the most unusual
Christmas shopping season in history will begin.
Instead of buying toys and cosmetics, there will be record sales
in the areas of "practical" items such as
cooking utensils and camping supplies. In December, the real
panic starts to set in. There will be a spotting
of runs on grocery stores and banks. Y2K programmers, now
making over $300 / hour, will be working
18-hour days and asking to be paid in cash. If the stock market
hasn't already crashed by December, this
will be it. Expect an initial 25% drop in one or two days, then a
second wave of selling that will leave the
market at less than half its peak 1998 valuation. The reasons are
twofold: people will need cash to buy
supplies, so they will sell stocks. And secondly, there will be
widespread concern over the actual state of
Y2K compliance with companies, and stockholders will likely
engage in massive sell-off's.
December 31, 1999
As the largest parties in the history of civilization kick off early
in the day, another segment of the world
population -- the survivalists -- hunker down with their candles
and food supplies to see what will happen.
The evening news is interrupted with a special briefing that
parts of Japan have lost power as they rolled
into January 1, 2000. The reports also describe the last minute
cash panic that shut down the country's
banks.
Throughout the afternoon and evening, news pours in from the
Soviet Union, Australia, the Middle East
and Europe: the power grid wasn't 100% compliant after all.
Cities are in the dark, and mass panic is
starting the spread. But the ill-infomed party on.
January 1, 2000
The President will declare martial law on this day, prohibiting
people from being on the street after 11pm.
He will call in the National Guard to try to control the rioting,
but the effort will have little impact. While
Guardsmen can easily handle isolated outbreaks of violence
(such as the O.J.trial riots in L.A.), they now
find themselves spread paper-thin as rioting and looting take
over in L.A., Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis,
New York, and a half-dozen other cities. Fires, started by the
rioters, burn well into the weekend, and
few people realize why the fire department can't respond: their
communications systems are completely
down, and effectiveness is reduced to a third of normal.
December 31, 1999, Midnight
The fools of America are still in the streets when it hits.
Half-drunk from the evening celebration they don't
realize why the lights went out. Within an hour, as inner-city
populations realize 911 doesn't work, mass
looting begins. They start with TVs, VCRs and stereos;
ironically, all items that are worthless without
eectricity. But the smart ones go for the gun shops. When the
gun shops are all looted, inspired by a new
sense of lawlessness, the gangs start going door to door,
shooting first and asking questions later. The
police will be helpless, and any family who decided against
purchasing a firearm out of concern that "guns
are dangerous" now realizes they are lot more dangerous when
the criminals have them and you don't.
A lot of lives will be lost that night
January 3, 2000
The first day of business in the new Millennium brings a wave
of shock and panic to the citizens of the
world: international banking is dead. Wire transfers simply can't
go through, and international money
activity comes to a dead halt. Bank runs begin in the United
States as the remaining "skeptics" finally
realize Y2K is real. Power is restored in some areas, but the
country as a whole is operating on 50% its
normal capacity. Bank runs now begin in earnest, and the
President orders a nationwide "bank holiday"
until further notice. Depositors are turned away by the millions,
and for the first time in three generations,
American citizens begin to understand what it feels like to lose
your life savings in a flash. Their money,
which never really existed in anything but a digital computer
record anyway, now vanishes.
If the stock market has somehow managed to live through this,
January 3 is the day it collapses, perhaps
to 25% of its 1998 peak. Interest rates shoot through the roof,
into the 50% range, as lenders and banks
begin to realize the enormity of the crisis now being faces.
Citizens holding variable-rate mortgages
suddenly realize their monthly house payment will now be
impossible to meet, and the defaults begin. The
domino effect ripples through society. As companies shut down
and mass layoffs begin, inflation eventually
reaches triple-digit territory. Gold and silver coins start to
appear as the currency of choice since green
paper dollars lose value by the hour. Stockpiles of coal for the
power plants continue to shrink. They will
run out in another week or two, and then the longest, coldest
winter in the memory of just about
everybody begins. For those without a backup heat source, the
Winter of 1999/2000 will be the coldest
and hardest in memory.
And it's just the beginning.
2000 finds the world at a crossroads where mass famine begins
to bring the populations of the world back
into a balance the planet can actually support. Hundreds of
millions will starve. Governments fall as they
find revenue collection impossible. The fractional reserve
banking system, a foundation of society since the
1600's, is over. It failed, and it will not be tried again for a
thousand years. All the lies of the governments,
the money supply, inflation, are all revealed to the citizens of
the world in one tremendous finale. Suddenly,
the people of the world realize they are on their own, for the
first time in generations. No government is
going to bail you out, no money is going to magically appear in
your mailbox. If you are to survive, you
have to earn it, every minute of every day, working with your
hands and your skills, chopping wood,
grinding flour by hand, preparing meals from food basics,
administering emergency medical care when
needed.
And as you go through your day, as a survivor now, as someone
who mastered the art of living through
Y2K and beyond, you think back to that time, so many years
ago, when you decided to make the
decision to be prepared, and how it gave you a head start on all
the skills and supplies you now live by.
While the world will continue to be a difficult place for years to
come, you know you can make it, because
you are a survivor. ( A survivalist has nothing to do with
Militia, living in the woods, Freemen, etc) it is
merely being prepared to "Survive" - whether it be Natural or
Man Made Disasters..... or yes the reality -
Y2K and potential hard times. |
