Global Platinum & Gold (GPGI) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Global Platinum & Gold (GPGI)

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To: Jeff Williams who wrote (6990)	8/16/1998 2:20:00 PM
From: Ed Fishbaine	Read Replies (2) of 14226

Jeff I think its difficult to make a prediction about the way the market will price the shares of GPGI as production gears up and payments begin to arrive. I expect these payments will start small and constantly increase as the volume of production increases and as the concentrations of metals in the shipments increases. As you know, GPGI is primarily a PGM producer, not a gold producer. There is no U.S. producer of PGMs other than Stillwater (and incidentally it took Stillwater 6 years to show a profit) Platinum is a strategfic metal. The South African mines are showing depletion and Russia is said to be selling from its reserves. As far as I know there are no new platinum discoveries emerging. Therefore the supply and demand fundamentals are exremely favorable for GPGI. But, there has always been consistent naysaying about Global. The desert sand companies are practically destoyed. There are forces out there which do not want to see GPGI succeed. There will be accusations of salting, and inquarting and backdooring the shares by insiders as the price starts to move up. I may be wrong but I see the shares stabilizing and moving very slowly to the upside as production emerges. (In fact this stabilization may already be happening as possibly indicated by the past week's trading). What I think will happen is that after GPGI shows consistent shipments (perhaps as many as 10-12 weeks worth) smart money will start nibbling around. It could be a major (possibly including Stillwater) or an alert well financed group which wants to participate in a JV or even a buy out. Further, I do not think it makes much difference whether the checks are large or small and the concentrations are hugely profitable or marginally so. I think the fact of production will be the determining event. The smart money will view GPGI as essentially a mom-pop operation which lacks the organizational ability to reach maximum efficiency. What they will want to know about is the ore reserve and simply the reality of the ability to extract metals. (It will take very little time to confirm the ore reserves. IMO it will be done not by assay but by random sampling of Weaver Creek material and the raw Hassaympa ore. These samples will be run through the milling and concentrating process with neutral observers monitoring every step.) What will happen when big money shows interest is a bidding war. The shares will explode and will stay up. Long before GPGI earnings would justify a PE of $5 or $10 the share price will become delinked from the normal valuation procedures. The media will come in. Stories about the potential expansion of applications of the PGMs will abound based on an abundance of the metals leading to a reduction in their prices. I could go on but you get the picture. Essentially a slow curve upward followed by an explosive move on heavy volume. When? In the first quarter of 1999. Regards, Ed

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