NEW POTENTIAL BEAR TRAPS
CCing using the W.I.N. approaching has become my regular bread and
butter strategy. Even when the stocks are cycling downward there is
money to be made from the CC premies. Right now, endless profit
opportunities clearly exist by joining those hungry bears (down
trending markets). The bears have come out of their long sleep ready
to eat all the investors that don't suspect the danger!
Perhaps, we can set some razor sharp bear traps and have a turkey
shoot. Wow! Several of you folks have uncovered some real big mooses
ready to roll over! Those PUTs are cheap and just waiting for us!
XIRC
Here are some clues that XIRC is ready for some profit taking. XIRC
has more than tagged the upper BB. It is dragging it pretty high.
There is no where to go but down! I have not seen many stocks with an
RSI of 80+ remain there for too long before everybody heads towards
the exits with their profits!
P/E VALUE - BINGO - PLENTY OF FAT TO SPARE!
XIRC is pushing a 92% premium P/E. With a growth rate of 25% vs. the
38.9 P/E spells TIMBER! WATCH OUT BELOW!
NASDAQ: (XIRC : $24 7/8) 564 million Market Cap at August 14, 1998
Trades at a 92% Premium PE Multiple of 38.9 X, vs. the 20.3 X average
multiple at which the Communications Equipment SubIndustry is priced.
XIRC TECHNICAL INDICATORS - BB & RSI
Again, take a look at all the benchmark highs for XIRC and note the
average point drops each time XIRC tops out. There is reasonable
expectations that the history will repeat itself again.
bigcharts.com
XIRC SHORT INTEREST
Our short interest data is always one month behind. By this upcoming
Friday, August 21, 1998 we should know what the last month short
interest has been. I suspect it will increase along with the volume.
One way to know the short interest is creeping up is the increase in the avg. daily volume. The stock price may continue upwards but the smart money is fading in for the kill.
Month Shares Short Avg Daily Volume Ratio* Remark
07/98 712,286 294,281 2.42
06/98 675,858 240,167 2.81
05/98 798,174 648,091 ====> 1.23 XIRC pulls back
04/98 899,714 507,462 1.77
03/98 680,407 389,018 1.75
02/98 910,273 271,543 3.35
01/98 1,098,152 255,356 4.30
12/97 1,256,887 330,165 3.81
11/97 1,155,585 363,172 ====> 3.18 XIRC pulls back
XIRC INSIDER TRADING - GOLDEN PARACHUTES?
GATES DIRK I Disposed 50,000 $20.00 07/29/98 08/10/98 S 1,034,800
MATHEWS J KIRK Disposed 50,000 $20.00 07/28/98 08/10/98 S 352,702
At least two CEOs snatched a few thousand shares @ $20.00 for
spending change. Hummmm? I guess they think it's a good time to take
some money off the table! Me too! Load up on cheap PUTs! XIRC just
came out with earnings release. It's a LONG TIME until the next one
and no doubt XIRC will experience profit taking!
The PUTs are prices right! 15 Sept. @ 3/16s, **15 DEC. @ 1/4 **, or
**17 1/2 Dec. 5/8s** could result in $2 to $3 points scalpe on the
pullback!
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ATRC
Looks good for a bear trap. Short interest is building and volume is
dropping. This baby is slowing down.
NASDAQ: (ATRC : $19 1/2) $456 million Market Cap at August 14, 1998
Trades at a Premium PE Multiple of 33.6 X, vs. the 16.5 X average
multiple at which the Medical Services SubIndustry is priced.
Gro=35.6 vs. 33.6 P/E
Month Shares Short Avg Daily Volume Ratio* Remark
07/98 1,184,563 126,269 9.38
06/98 1,141,597 183,130 6.23
05/98 1,216,910 539,707 2.25
04/98 2,101,339 181,025 11.61
bigcharts.com
-----------------------------------------------------------------
ANF
NYSE: (ANF : $52 3/16) $2,662 million Market Cap at August 14, 1998
Trades at a 81% Premium PE Multiple of 35.7 X, vs. the 19.8 X average
multiple at which the Apparel SubIndustry is priced.
bigcharts.com
-----------------------------------------------------------------
AN
NYSE: (AN : $50 1/16) $48,755 million Market Cap at August 14, 1998
Ranks 17th in the Fortune 500 on Revenue & 23rd on Profit. Employs
41,725. Trades at a 27% Premium PE Multiple of 26.6 X, vs. the 20.9 X
average multiple at which the Major Oils SubIndustry is priced.
bigcharts.com
---------------------------------------------------------------------
GVA
NYSE: (GVA : $29 1/2) (GVAw : $25 5/8) $808 million Market Cap at
August 14, 1998 Ranks 992nd in the Fortune 1,000 on Revenue. Employs
3,300. Trades at a Premium PE Multiple of 20.9 X, vs. the 10.1 X
average multiple at which the Cement SubIndustry is priced.
bigcharts.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------
TMPW
NASDAQ: (TMPW : $35) $944 million Market Cap at August 14, 1998
Employs 2,200. Trades at a 91% Premium PE Multiple of 54.7 X, vs. the
28.7 X average multiple at which the Advertising & Marketing
SubIndustry is priced.
bigcharts.com
Month Shares Short Avg Daily Volume Ratio* Remark
07/98 523,800 142,625 3.67
06/98 131,206 59,505 2.20
05/98 129,473 141,287 0.92
04/98 168,545 113,005 1.49 |
