Gersh; The 200DMA Monty and I are talking about is not the price
of the index in fact none of our DMA info has been
the index price, ours maxed ahead of the index, and it will bottom
ahead of the index. We are looking at the DMAs of the A/D line.
The last part of your other message was wrong, I've bought the
dip 4 times since WED a week ago and I'll have you
know I haven't got any burned fingers yet.
I was in front of the curve each time, and sounded
the down turn warning on July 16, IN BOLD .
While we may have more down side, at this point Johny come
late shorters are the ones at more risk, than dip buyers.
And managing risk is the name of the game.
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If you are not a nimble trader this may be a good time to keep your
hands in your pockets.
Put / call ratio is still a little bearish, but volatility
and option premiums are high enough to make a short or long
option position costly enough that I don't see enough profit in
it for the risk involved.
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The DMAs on the A/Ds don't look very promising at this time,
but they made a double bottom on the 5th and again on the 11th,
the up/down volume hit a low on the 4th and again on the 11th,
but the low on the 11th was 5% higher than on the 4th.
so far the 2nd low was not as low as the first one.
Keep in mind I'm not baseing this on the index prices,
but on market internals. Indexes have froth at the highs
and foam at the lows. The type TA I do don't match with
the wave counters. I contend they don't understand indexes
and the refraction built into them.
If they would just look at total market cap vs the index close
over a time frame they would see the error in thinking
a top is a top, or a low is a low via the funny numbers.
In short indexes are hyped, both ways and cross the
reality ( liquid line ) briefly, at least 4 times in every
major cycle, top to top.
Most of the TA I see on SI is like voodoo, not looking at
internals is thinking you can judge a book by it's cover.
Jim
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